Covid-19 Mortality Rates in Northamptonshire UK: Initial Sub-regional Comparisons and Provisional SEIR model of First Wave Disease Spread

Petford, N. and Campbell, J. (2021) Covid-19 Mortality Rates in Northamptonshire UK: Initial Sub-regional Comparisons and Provisional SEIR model of First Wave Disease Spread. Open Public Health Journal. 14, pp. 218-224. 1874-9445.

Petford_Campbell_OPHJ_2021_Covid-19_mortality_rates_in_Northamptonshire_UK_initial_sub-regional_comparison ... (565kB)

Item Type:	Article
Abstract:	We analysed mortality rates in a non-metropolitan UK subregion (Northamptonshire) using statistically-weighted data fitted to the start of the epidemic to quantify SARS-CoV-2 disease fatalities at sub 1,000,000 population levels. Using parameter estimates derived from the recorded mortality data, a numerical (SEIR) model was developed to predict the spread of Covid-19 sub regionally. Model outputs, including analysis of transmission rates and the basic reproduction number, suggest national lockdown flattened the curve and reduced potential deaths by up to 4000 locally. The modelled number of infected and recovered individuals is higher than official estimates, and a revised form of the theoretical critical population fraction requiring immunisation is derived. Combining published (sub-regional) mortality rate data with deterministic models on disease spread has the potential to help public health practitioners refine bespoke mitigation plans guided by local population demographics.
Uncontrolled Keywords:	/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being
Creators:	Petford, Nick and Campbell, Jackie
Faculties, Divisions and Institutes:	?? HSRES ?? ?? DIRAA ??
Date:	24 May 2021
Date Type:	Publication
Page Range:	pp. 218-224
Journal or Publication Title:	Open Public Health Journal
Volume:	14
Language:	English
DOI:	https://doi.org/10.2174/1874944502114010218
ISSN:	1874-9445
Status:	Published / Disseminated
Refereed:	Yes
Related URLs:	http://benthamopen.com/FULLTEXT/TOPHJ-14... https://pure.northampton.ac.uk/en/public...
URI:	http://nectar.northampton.ac.uk/id/eprint/14605

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