Northampton Electronic Collection of Theses and Research

A Tuned Holt-Winters White-Box Model for COVID-19 Prediction

Hansun, S., Charles, V., Gherman, T., Subanar and Rini Indrati, C. (2020) A Tuned Holt-Winters White-Box Model for COVID-19 Prediction. International Journal of Management and Decision Making. 20(3), pp. 241-262. 1462-4621.

[A][B][+][-]
14526:33040
[thumbnail of Hansun_etal_IJMDM_2020_A_Tuned_Holt_Winters_White_Box_Model_for_COVID_19_Prediction]
Hansun_etal_IJMDM_2020_A_Tuned_Holt_Winters_White_Box_Model_for_COVID_19_Prediction
Hansun_etal_IJMDM_2020_A_Tuned_Holt_Winters_White_Box_Model_for_COVID_19_Prediction.pdf - Accepted Version
Information
Abstract:
The year 2020 has become memorable the moment the novel COVID-19 spread massively around the world to become a pandemic. In this paper, we analyse and predict the future trend of the COVID-19 cases for the top ten countries with the highest number of confirmed cases to date and the top ten countries with the highest growth percentage within the last month. Since many recent works have proposed that the COVID-19 pattern follows an exponential distribution, we use a tuned approach to the Holt-Winters’ additive method as a white-box model. Based on the analysis, we found that most of the countries are still presenting an increasing trend of confirmed cases in the near future. Apart from vaccine and drug development, measures such as vigilance, strategic governmental actions, public awareness, and social distancing are unarguably continuously needed to handle the spreading of COVID-19 and avoid the next wave of the outbreak.
Uncontrolled Keywords:
/dk/atira/pure/sustainabledevelopmentgoals/good_health_and_well_being
Creators:
Hansun, S., Charles, V., Gherman, T., Subanar and Rini Indrati, C.
Faculties, Divisions and Institutes:
Faculties > Faculty of Business & Law > International Strategy & Business
University Faculties, Divisions and Research Centres - OLD > Research Centre > Centre for Sustainable Business Practices
Research Centres > Centre for Sustainable Business Practices
University Faculties, Divisions and Research Centres - OLD > Research Centre > China and Emerging Economies Centre
Research Centres > China and Emerging Economies Centre
Date:
1 August 2020
Date Type:
Acceptance
Page Range:
pp. 241-262
Journal or Publication Title:
International Journal of Management and Decision Making
Volume:
20
Number:
3
Number of Pages:
22
Language:
English
DOI:
10.1504/IJMDM.2021.10034422
ISSN:
1462-4621
Status:
Published / Disseminated
Refereed:
Yes
Related URLs:
Edit Item